a hopeful message against the nuclear gambler’s ruin

> probability expresses nothing fundamental about the situation; rather, the probability expresses the expert’s uncertainty and lack of information about the future

great phrasing!

Thanks for writing this. These ideas need a wider audience.

Don't you think the probability is also a way of saying that if things are left as is, there is a higher chance as compared to 6 months back ?

While I agree that the number isn't absolute for many reasons, but how do you quantify the chance of the rare event happening ?

## Why Nuclear War Probabilities are Useless

> probability expresses nothing fundamental about the situation; rather, the probability expresses the expert’s uncertainty and lack of information about the future

great phrasing!

Thanks for writing this. These ideas need a wider audience.

Don't you think the probability is also a way of saying that if things are left as is, there is a higher chance as compared to 6 months back ?

While I agree that the number isn't absolute for many reasons, but how do you quantify the chance of the rare event happening ?