a hopeful message against the nuclear gambler’s ruin
> probability expresses nothing fundamental about the situation; rather, the probability expresses the expert’s uncertainty and lack of information about the future
Thanks for writing this. These ideas need a wider audience.
Don't you think the probability is also a way of saying that if things are left as is, there is a higher chance as compared to 6 months back ?
While I agree that the number isn't absolute for many reasons, but how do you quantify the chance of the rare event happening ?